HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU NOV 18 1999

RADAR...RECONNAISSANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
EYEWALL OF LENNY IS OVER ST. MAARTEN.   BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...ONLY A
VERY SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS INDICATED
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.  THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER ST. MAARTEN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS.  FORTUNATELY...RECON DATA INDICATE THAT LENNY IS NOT AS
STRONG AS IT WAS 24 HOUR AGO.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 105 KNOTS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 966 MB.
HOWEVER...LENNY IS STILL A STRONG HURRICANE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WEAKENING IS
INDICATED THEREAFTER...AS LENNY MOVES TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.  IF THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE
PROPERLY ESTABLISHED...THE HURRICANE COULD OVERCOME THE SHEARING
EFFECTS AND REMAIN STRONG A LITTLE BIT LONGER. 

WV IMAGES SHOW AN EASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...FORCING LENNY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS THE
GENERAL SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK AND GLOBAL MODELS.
 
BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE PUERTO RICO
RADAR...ITS EYE PRESENTATION IS POORLY DEFINED. THEREFORE...
ADVISORIES WILL NOW BE ISSUED EVERY 3 HOURS.

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 18.1N  63.1W   105 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 18.5N  62.5W   105 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N  61.5W   100 KTS
36HR VT     20/0600Z 19.7N  60.3W    95 KTS
48HR VT     20/1800Z 21.0N  59.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  57.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN