HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE NOV 16 1999

LENNY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND CONSEQUENTLY IS
STILL MOVING TOWARD THE EAST ABOUT 14 KNOTS.  A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE PROVIDING A PATTERN WHICH WOULD
FAVOR A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHEAST.  IN FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION
INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND WATCHES
AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST CONTINUE BECAUSE RELIABLE
UK...GFDL AND GFDN MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE OVER PUERTO RICO.  

A NOAA P3 PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING AND HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 973 MB WITH WINDS OF 96 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. SINCE THE
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR AND THERE IS NO SHEAR IN THE NEAR FUTURE...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24
HOUR OR SO...AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 15.3N  69.8W    85 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 16.3N  67.9W    90 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 18.1N  65.3W    95 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N  62.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  61.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 24.0N  56.0W    75 KTS
 
 
NNNN