HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN OCT 31 1999
 
LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWED THAT KATRINA WAS PRETTY MUCH
ON TRACK...WITH AN INTIAL MOTION OF 325/8.  THE CENTER IS STILL OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING SHOWS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IN THE GULF AHEAD OF
KATRINA.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH THEN RAPIDLY TO
THE NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW NOW IN EAST TEXAS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

BASED ON OFFSHORE RECON DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
20 KT.  KATRINA WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE TOMORROW MORNING...AND THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGHEN AT THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...
SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS KATRINA
AS A DISTINCT ENTITY FOR 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
KATRINA WILL BECOME ABSORBED OR DISSIPATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NOW IN THE WESTERN GULF BEFORE THEN.  ASSUMING THAT KATRINA...WHICH
HAS HELD ITSELF TOGETHER ADMIRABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...DOES
BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN THE SOUTHERN GULF...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY MONDAY.

 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 20.2N  89.9W    20 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 21.2N  90.3W    25 KTS
24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.3N  89.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     02/1200Z 26.0N  86.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     03/0000Z 29.0N  81.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL...INLAND
 
 
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