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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 1999
 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS THIS
EVENING.  THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTTIME IR
IMAGERY...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE CONTINUED ON TRACK AND MOVED
INLAND.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS RATHER DIVERGENT.  THE GFDL FROM THE 12Z AVN RUN THIS MORNING
DRIFTED KATRINA SOUTHWARD...KEEPING IT OFFSHORE.  AS THIS FORECAST
IS ALREADY VERIFYING POORLY WE WILL PAY IT NO FURTHER HEED.  THE
UKMET...WHICH HAS DONE THE BEST JOB WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...TAKES
KATRINA NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
U.S.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TRACK...WITH A
SPEED THAT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS FAST AS
THE UKMET. 

DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA WEST OF THE CENTER. 
MULTICHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
DIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED.  WITH THE CENTER NOW OVER LAND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DROPPED TO 30 KT...HOWEVER SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH MAY REMAIN.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION MAY WELL DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER...IF
IT HANGS TOGETHER...THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A RETURN TO
STORM STRENGTH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 13.9N  83.8W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     30/1200Z 14.6N  84.9W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     31/0000Z 15.5N  86.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     31/1200Z 16.5N  87.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N  87.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     02/0000Z 20.5N  88.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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