HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 1999
 
AS IS THE CASE WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEAK SYSTEMS THE
CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...CENTER FIXES FROM SAB AND MIAMI
SUGGEST THAT THE LLCC IS STILL PROGRESSING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS
BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST OF THE CENTER
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ANALYSES.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
285/05.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE SAN ANDRES WIND OBSERVATION AT
06 UTC OF 350/10...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND.  IN FACT...THE ARRIVAL
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE EAST...NOW LOCATED ABOUT 78-79W...MAY
BE CAUSING AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE WIND FIELD AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER MAY FORM.  THIS WILL BE MORE
EVIDENT WITH THE VISIBLE IMAGERY LATER THIS MORNING.

TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TWO CAMPS.  THE BAMS...STATISTICAL AND
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MOVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD...WHILE THE
LBAR...UKMET...AND AVN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. IN EITHER
CASE THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER LAND FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME
AND MAY DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PREVAILS
AND THE SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND MAY REINTENSIFY...WHICH IS WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION REMAINS THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
   
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT...WITH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES 0F 30 AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  THE SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL CONTINUES TO PREDICT A SIGNIFICANT
LESSENING OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR NOW OVER THE DEPRESSION...AND
FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND MAKES THE SYSTEM A
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 11.8N  82.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 12.0N  83.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 12.5N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     30/1800Z 13.2N  85.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     31/0600Z 14.0N  86.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     01/0600Z 16.0N  88.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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