HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES JOSE IS STARTING TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL
ZONE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING DEEP
CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THERE IS NOT YET A
COLD FRONT APPARENT SOUTH OF THE STORM. THUS...JOSE REMAINS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS PACKAGE. EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 60 KT BASED ON WARMING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE
MORE BAROCLINIC APPEARANCE.

JOSE SHOULD CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 36.0N  57.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 41.0N  54.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL

NNNN