HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 1999
 
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LLCC REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 AND 45 KNOTS FROM
MIAMI AND WASHINGTON RESPECTIVELY.  THUS...INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS.  OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AT 50
KNOTS UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 36 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM WILL EXPAND AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE WIND RADII FORECAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 025/13 KNOTS.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGES AND ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 25.9N  63.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 28.1N  62.4W    50 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 32.5N  60.4W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 40.0N  56.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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