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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 1999
 
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY MORE RECON FLIGHTS INTO JOSE...SO WE WILL
DEPEND ON SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR OUR INPUT DATA.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE LLCC REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 AND 45 KNOTS FROM MIAMI
AND WASHINGTON RESPECTIVELY.  THUS...INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
AT 50 KNOTS.  SHIPS FORECAST SCHEME NOW SLOWLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM
AND OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGES AND
ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF MAJOR
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 24.7N  64.1W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 26.7N  63.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 30.1N  62.1W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 35.9N  59.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 44.0N  53.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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