HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 1999
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB...WHICH IS UP 3 MB FROM 24 HOURS AGO. 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOW OUTSIDE AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHEREAS LAST NIGHT IT WAS JUST INSIDE.  THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT AT 850 MB ABOUT
90 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER A GPS DROPSONDE AT
THIS LOCATION MEASURED ONLY 38 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE DROP ALSO
MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 999 MB...INDICATING AN EXTREMELY WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT.  A SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS BY THE NOAA HURRICANE
RESEARCH DIVISION...BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...SHOWS A PEAK
SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS DROPPED TO 50 KT
AND MAY YET BE A BIT GENEROUS.  

THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS THE SHEAR JUST
AHEAD OF THE STORM MAY BE A LITTLE LESS.  HOWEVER...ON ITS MOST
RECENT PASS THROUGH THE CENTER THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A VERY LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND COULD NOT FIND A SINGLE WELL DEFINED
CENTER.  IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT LESSEN VERY SOON...JOSE MAY DISSIPATE
QUICKLY...RATHER THAN BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS INDICATED BY THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL
FASTER THAN THE UKMET GUIDANCE.  IF IT SURVIVES...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 23.5N  64.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 25.7N  63.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 29.6N  62.3W    55 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 35.5N  60.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 45.0N  54.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN