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TROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU OCT 21 1999
 
THE MOST RECENT DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOSE IS LOCATED
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08 KT.  THE PHILOSOPHY BEHIND THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AS JOSE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE
TO A LARGE MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE EASTERN U.S.
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS
A MARKED ACCELERATION BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HRS...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET....AND IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF JOSE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ALTHOUGH A
LARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION...WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -85C...
CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE U.S. AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER
CENTRAL ARE ALL 55 KT...AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST
TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  JOSE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 72 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS/MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR BERMUDA
FRIDAY.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 19.6N  66.2W    55 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.2N  66.9W    60 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 23.5N  67.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 27.0N  65.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 31.5N  63.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 46.0N  53.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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