HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999
 
THE CENTER OF IRENE CAME ASHORE OVER CAPE SABLE EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.  LATEST RECONNAISSANCE FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT THE MOTION IS 030/10.  MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IRENE WILL
TURN MORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...
AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS OFFSHORE THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST...WHERE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT.  THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED BY DROPSONDE IN
THE CENTER WAS 985 MB...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE...TYPICALLY TOO LOW...WAS 982 MB.  AS THE CENTER MOVES
FURTHER INLAND IRENE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 25.6N  81.0W    75 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     16/0600Z 26.8N  81.2W    55 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     16/1800Z 28.6N  81.4W    45 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     17/0600Z 30.6N  81.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 33.5N  80.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     18/1800Z 39.5N  74.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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