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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 07 1999
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS.  THE CENTER REMAINS
EXPOSED AND WELL-REMOVED...ABOUT 100 NMI WEST...FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION DUE TO MODEST...BUT PERSISTENT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
ARE 35 KT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
HELD AT 30 KT.
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEST IDENTIFIED IN GOES-8 MULTICHANNEL
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/05.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE OBJECTIVE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS 
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST PACKAGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK SHOWS A SLOW...GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HRS
...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF
THE UKMET OFFICE FORECAST TRACK. THIS TRACK REPRESENTS A SLIGHT
LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED MAINLY ON THE
INITIAL MOTION.  IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN ITS CURRENT STATE BEYOND
24 HRS...THE TRACK MAY BE MORE WESTERLY...PER LOW-LEVEL STEERING.

WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION IS LESS
ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 24 HRS AGO.  THE SHEAR INDUCED BY THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF 20N FROM 40W 
AND 50W...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR AS QUICKLY AS
THE MODELS SUGGEST.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN A
DEPRESSION THROUGH 24 HRS WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER...
BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SHIPS...AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS
HOSTILE.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 15.9N  47.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 16.2N  47.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 16.5N  48.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 16.9N  49.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 17.3N  50.4W    40 KTS
72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.0N  52.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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