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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999
 
RECON OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW A SLIGHT PRESSURE FALL...TO 998
MB...BUT NO STRONGER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY...SO FAR.  THE SYSTEM
REMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED-LOOKING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW.  HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING...AND IN
FACT THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN MAKES HARVEY A HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF GOOD CENTER FIXES. THE
STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY... BUT PROBABLY
NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE ESTIMATE SHOWN IN THE 12Z INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.  MY BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS 065/06.  HARVEY IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT IS STEERED BY THE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.  THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
TAKES THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST IN 24 HOURS.
 
THE NEW FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS/WATCHES AND A HURRICANE WATCH AS SHOWN IN THE ADVISORY.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 27.1N  85.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 27.4N  85.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 27.9N  83.3W    60 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 28.7N  81.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 31.0N  77.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 37.0N  67.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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