HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999
 
BUOY AND SHIP DATA ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED...NOT UNUSUAL IN A BROAD CIRCULATION.  BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/06.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH A TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD TURN THE
CYCLONE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OR
FLORIDA.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS. THE
LBAR...BAMM...BAMD AND A98 TAKE THE CYCLONE ON THE TRACK SUGGESTED
BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE AVN LETS THE SYSTEM
LINGER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFDL AND BAMS MOVE THE
SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE NOGAPS HAS THE TROUGH MISSING THE SYSTEM
AND THE TRAILING HIGH PUSHING THE IT SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT APPEARS THAT
THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IS IMPROVING.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 KT.  A SHIP TOWING A BARGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION
REPORTED AT 16Z THAT HE HAD WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 35 KNOTS AND A
PRESSURE OF 1015MB.
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
 
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS OF THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
 
JARVINEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/1500Z 26.1N  87.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/0000Z 27.0N  87.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     20/1200Z 28.0N  86.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     21/0000Z 28.5N  85.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     21/1200Z 29.2N  83.1W    50 KTS
72HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  76.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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