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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  46
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GERT MAINTAINS A WELL DEFINED CLOUD
PATTERN FOR SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT GERT IS BARELY A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING
THE WINDS AT 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME BASED ON EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. 
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND GERT IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 030/24.  GERT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL
TRACK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THIS TRACK GERT SHOULD PASS
VERY CLOSE TO AVALON PENINSULA NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS IS CONSISTENT 
WITH GUIDANCE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN
HURRICANE CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CANADA.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 41.3N  57.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 44.2N  54.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 48.5N  49.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     24/0600Z 51.5N 410.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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