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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999

THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE
WEST...LIKELY DUE TO THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH 
SITUATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF GERT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE
THIS EVENING.  A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING...DUE TO MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR... MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN ANY EVENT...THE
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/7.  GERT IS NEAR A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THIS IS PROBABLY WHY THE HURRICANE
IS MOVING RATHER SLOWLY.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT A MORE NORTHWARD TURN MAY BE DELAYED LONG ENOUGH FOR
GERT TO EVENTUALLY POSE A THREAT TO BERMUDA.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTION. 
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 21.3N  57.1W   110 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  57.8W   110 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 23.3N  59.0W   105 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 24.6N  60.4W   105 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 25.8N  61.8W   105 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 28.0N  65.0W   105 KTS
 
 
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