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HURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GERT CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED
WITH A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE
ARE BANDING FEATURES AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW.  HOWEVER...GERT IS
NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS.  THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WERE EXPECTED AND
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.  

GERT HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WHILE
LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY INDICATE THAT GERT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY OR FRIDAY AS WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE
FORECAST IS PRACTICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLE.  ON
THIS TRACK...GERT SHOULD MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  AT THIS TIME...ONLY BERMUDA APPEARS TO BE
NEAR THE PATH OF GERT.   

ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK GERT LATER TODAY.
 
AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 18.3N  52.9W   125 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N  54.0W   120 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N  55.5W   120 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  57.0W   115 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 22.5N  58.5W   115 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 27.0N  61.0W   115 KTS
 
 
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