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TROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED WITH BANDING
FEATURES AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES
FROM ALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL
STORM STATUS. THEREFORE...IT IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
GERT...THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...AT THIS TIME.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE STORM...AND SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR
INTENSIFICATION. GERT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36
HOURS OR SO.
 
GERT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLIES...
ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPICAL STRONG 700 MB JET TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 17
KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.  MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING GERT
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 14.0N  32.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.0N  35.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.2N  39.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 14.3N  42.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N  45.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N  50.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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