HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999
 
METEOSAT-7 SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WITH THE PRIMARY
CONVECTION LOCATED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE HELD AT 30 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM HAS WELL-
ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW AND WITH NO OBVIOUS HINDRANCES...GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LIKELY
WITHIN 12 HRS...AND HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HRS. THIS IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL.
 
THE CENTER IS STILL NOT WELL-DEFINED AND IR IMAGERY ONLY ADDS TO 
THE DIFFICULTY OF LOCATING IT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 275/15.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS IS REFLECTED 
IN THE LATEST OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHT
CLUSTERING AROUND THIS HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO
SHOWS THIS MOTION...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 13.3N  30.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 13.4N  32.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 13.6N  35.9W    50 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 13.8N  38.9W    60 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 14.0N  42.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 14.5N  48.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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