HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR
HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999

...CORRECTION TO PARAGRAPH ONE AND TWO...
 
FLOYD IS NOW INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/19 KT...BASED ON RECON FIXES FROM THE AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES FROM THE 
NWS WILMINGTON WSR-88D RADAR.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD ACCELERATE AS 
IT IS STEERED ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST...THEN NORTHEAST TRACK FOR THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS BY THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TO A MORE EAST-
NORTHEAST HEADING BEYOND 36 HOURS.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK 
IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. 
THIS TRACK TAKES THE CENTER INLAND OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND REEMERGES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A POSITION JUST OFF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG
ISLAND NEW YORK BY 24 HRS.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ONE MUST
NOT FOCUS ON THIS EXACT TRACK BECAUSE FLOYD WILL RETAIN A LARGE 
CORE OF STRONG WINDS.

THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA DOPPLER-ON-WHEELS (DOW) TEAM RECORDED A
MAX SUSTAINED WIND OF 81 MPH...AND A PEAK GUST OF 123 MPH...AT
TOPSAIL BEACH NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE TIME FLOYD MADE LANDFALL.  THE
NEW HANOVER COUNTY EOC RECORDED A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 98 MPH WITH
A GUST TO 130 MPH ...AND A 971.9 MB PRESSURE...AT 05Z. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HRS AS FLOYD MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THEREAFTER FLOYD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AS IT PASSES JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK.

BASED ON THE NEW TRACK...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND
NEW YORK TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS. 

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 34.5N  77.6W    90 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 37.3N  75.7W    80 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 40.9N  71.9W    65 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 44.0N  66.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 46.0N  59.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     19/0600Z 49.0N  43.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
  
NNNN