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HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/12.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE
CLOSELY CLUSTERED SHOWING A CONTINUED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH A LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA A LITTLE OVER 12 HOURS.  A FEW OF THE
MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST SHOWING THE LANDFALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE CENTER CROSSING THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.  IN EITHER CASE...THE LARGE RADIUS OF HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WILL IMPACT NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO RISE AND THE WIND SPEED IS
DECREASED TO 110 KNOTS AT 15Z...CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFFIR/SIMPSON
SCALE.  THE FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO BEFORE LANDFALL.  IT IS LIKELY THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL
SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS
ALONG THE COAST.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 29.9N  79.0W   110 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 32.2N  79.6W   110 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  78.7W    75 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     17/0000Z 38.7N  76.4W    55 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     17/1200Z 41.7N  73.3W    45 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     18/1200Z 49.0N  63.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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