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TROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 1999
 
FLOYD IS LOOKING MUCH STRONGER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...WITH A VERY COLD CDO.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE LAST NIGHT FOUND THAT THE WINDS WERE NOT AS
HIGH AS THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.  OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 50 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON.  FLOYD APPEARS POISED TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN DUE WESTWARD...
BUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION USED TO INITIALIZE THE MODELS WAS 280/12. 
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES FLOYD TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...FAR
ENOUGH THAT NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...IF THE WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES MUCH LONGER...THEY MAY BE
NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BETWEEN THE LBAR AND
GFDL.  FOR THE LONGER TERM...OF INTEREST IS THE WESTWARD BEND IN THE
GFDL AND LBAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE
MAJOR TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE U.S. EAST COAST MAY NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO RECURVE FLOYD.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 17.2N  55.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 17.6N  57.3W    60 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N  59.4W    70 KTS
36HR VT     11/0000Z 19.6N  61.2W    80 KTS
48HR VT     11/1200Z 21.0N  63.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     12/1200Z 22.5N  65.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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