HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 1999

THERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE CENTER LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE ON
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  BROWNSVILLE RADAR ANIMATION SUGGESTS
THAT THE CENTER IS ALREADY ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...BUT SINCE THE
CENTER IS ABOUT 200 MILES FROM THE RADAR THIS IS SPECULATIVE. 
IMAGES FROM THE TAMPICO MEXICO RADAR ARE INCONCLUSIVE.  LACKING
DEFINITIVE INFORMATION...THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATES
ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND HAVE CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES.  IN ANY EVENT A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOVEMENT
WOULD BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE COAST LATER TODAY.  A WEAK MID-
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE
TRACK TOWARD THE LEFT WITH TIME.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A LITTLE FASTER.

AFTER THE USUAL DIURNAL DECREASE...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION THIS MORNING.  THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  THE ONLY OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING IS
LANDFALL...WHICH SEEMS IMMINENT AT THIS TIME.  IF THE CENTER IS
STILL OVER WATER...THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY. 

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 23.1N  97.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 23.8N  97.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/0600Z 24.3N  98.2W    35 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     07/1800Z 24.8N  99.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     08/0600Z 25.0N  99.5W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED  
 
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