HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING
EMILY FOUND A VERY TINY TROPICAL STORM.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS
OF 49 KT AT 1500 FT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...DOWN 3 MB FROM THIS
MORNING.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THEREFORE EMILY IS UPGRADED AGAIN TO TROPICAL
STORM STATUS.  

THE MOTION IS NOW RELIABLY ESTIMATED AT 360/10.  TRACK GUIDANCE
GIVES MOSTLY A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER EMILY WILL BE
BENDING TO THE LEFT OR THE RIGHT AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
WEST OF THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH EMILY MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO FEEL THIS
LOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE
GFDL...AND THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAMS.

WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF EMILY...THE NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT
HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS DIMINISHING...AND WE PERMIT SOME
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
SHIPS GUIDANCE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A STORM THIS SMALL COULD
DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE NOTICE.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 20.5N  57.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 22.1N  57.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 23.8N  57.8W    40 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 25.3N  58.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 26.9N  59.7W    45 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 29.6N  62.3W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN