HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 26 1999
 
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPROTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT 
EMILY IS BEING DISTORTED AND WEAKENED BY THE CIRCULATION OF CINDY. 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF EMILY NOW ELONGATED TO THE NORTH...WITH
A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING LEFT BEHIND 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED IN BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS...BUT THIS IS NOT
INTERPRETED AS A RESTRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
PROBABLY SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE REMAINING...EMILY WILL
BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.
 
EMILY IS NOW MOVING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE INTIAL MOTION IS
NOW ESTIMATED AS 350/9.  GIVEN THIS MOTION AND THE DOWNGRADE TO
DEPRESSION STATUS...THE THREAT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DIMINISHED.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.

SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL RETURNS EMILY TO HURRICANE STATUS IN
72 HOURS...AND THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CAN PERSIST LONG ENOUGH FOR EMILY AND CINDY TO SEPARATE.  HOWEVER...
THE OUTFLOW FROM DENNIS IS NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT EITHER...SO WE WILL HOLD DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 16.6N  57.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.8N  57.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 19.3N  57.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 20.8N  59.3W    25 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 22.5N  61.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 26.0N  64.5W    25 KTS
 
 
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