HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1999
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING EMILY...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SINCE LAST
NIGHT.  THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS UP TO 1010 MB AND NO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN FOUND...ALTHOUGH THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET
COMPLETED ITS PATTERN.  I WILL KEEP EMILY AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH
THIS ADVISORY...BUT UNLESS ITS APPEARANCE IMPROVES THIS
AFTERNOON...I WILL HAVE TO DOWNGRADE EMILY TO A DEPRESSION FOR THE
NEXT ADVISORY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY
SHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME...IN RESPONSE TO THE OUTFLOW PATTERNS OF
CINDY AND DENNIS.  OUR INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EMILY TO
STRENGTHEN IN THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO SURVIVE
THE NEXT DAY OR SO FIRST.

EMILY IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 320/7...ABOUT THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE UKMET STILL BRINGS EMILY AROUND THE EAST
SIDE OF CINDY...AN OPTION THAT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
CURRENT MOTIONS OF CINDY AND EMILY.  THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SHOWS A
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK...AND THE SIZE AND STRENGTH OF EMILY...THERE IS STILL
NO NEED FOR ANY WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 15.4N  57.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 16.3N  57.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N  59.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N  60.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 20.5N  62.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 24.0N  67.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN