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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999
 
A RECENT AIR FORCE FIX SHOWS THAT EMILY HAS ACQUIRED A LITTLE MORE
NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE A
RESULT OF THE INFLUENCE OF NEARBY HURRICANE CINDY.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
72 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS DECREASES THE THREAT TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST A LITTLE AND ANY WATCHES FOR THESE ISLANDS
CAN BE DELAYED AT LEAST 6 MORE HOURS.  

THE RECON FLIGHT REPORTED A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1007 AND A
MAXIMUM 1500 FT WIND SPEED OF 43 KNOTS...SO EMILY HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING
FOR 72 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 14.0N  55.9W    40 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 14.6N  56.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.3N  57.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.6N  58.8W    50 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.8N  60.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 21.5N  65.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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