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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999
 
EMILY IS HOLDING ITS OWN AGAINST SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.  AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM EMILY
THIS MORNING FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT...AND AN EXTRAPOLATED
PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 40 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA COMFIRM THAT EMILY
REMAINS A VERY COMPACT STORM.  THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EMILY DEPENDS
IN GREAT MEASURE ON ITS TRACK RELATIVE TO CINDY AND DENNIS.  AS THE
SMALLEST OF THE THREE...EMILY WILL BE THE LEAST ABLE TO GOVERN ITS
OWN FATE.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS EMILY TO 79 KNOTS IN 72
HOURS.  ALTHOUGH I BRING EMILY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE
PERIOD...IF DENNIS DOES NOT MOVE NORTHWARD AS ANTICIPATED THEN ITS
OUTFLOW COULD EVENTUALLY ADVERSLY AFFECT EMILY.
 
RECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGEST THAT EMILY IS NOW MOVING AT 305/6...MORE
TO THE LEFT THAN EARLIER.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
ON A CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION.  OUTLIERS ARE THE AVN...WITH
AN INITIAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...AND THE LBAR...WHICH
INDICATES MORE OF A THREAT TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  AS THE
CIRCULATION OF CINDY MOVES AWAY FROM EMILY...I EXPECT THE FORWARD
SPEED OF EMILY TO INCREASE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR
SOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 13.4N  55.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 14.0N  56.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 14.8N  57.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.9N  59.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 17.0N  61.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N  64.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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