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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST WED AUG 25 1999
 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF EMILY REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH A NEW
BURST OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SINCE
THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF
WHAT THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCERTAIN. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 40 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AROUND THE ECLIPSE PERIOD SUGGESTS THAT EMILY
HAS STARTED A NORTHWEST MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE
WILL BE 335/5...WHICH IS THE 12 HOUR MOTION. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE
IS CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK AND IS IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN SIX HOURS AGO...WITH THE ONLY OUTLIERS TO THE RIGHT
BEING THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET. THIS AGREEMENT LOOKS A LITTLE
STRANGE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH CINDY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND IS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN A TRACK PRODUCED BY INTERACTION WITH CINDY AND
A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATICAL. IF EMILY GETS CAUGHT IN THE
LARGER CIRCULATION OF CINDY...IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SIMILAR TO
HOW KAREN DISSIPATED WHILE INTERACTING WITH IRIS IN 1995. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING EMILY TO HURRICANE
STATUS BY 60 HOURS...WHICH COULD OCCUR IF EMILY STAYS FAR ENOUGH
AWAY FROM CINDY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW AND STEADY
INTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE. THIS IS BASED ON THE CONTINUED EASTERLY SHEAR AND CURRENT
LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
 
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT PRESENTLY CALL FOR LANDFALL...
ALL INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN
PORTION...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 12.9N  54.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 13.6N  54.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 14.5N  56.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.4N  57.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N  58.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N  61.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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