HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 1999
 
THE CENTER OF DENNIS CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/09.  DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS.  THUS...DENNIS IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DENNIS TO CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN.
 
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH WITH THE
LOW IN THE VICINITY OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL ACCELERATE THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHAT
FASTER THAN SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
BE MERGING WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 35.8N  78.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 36.5N  79.1W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     06/0600Z 37.9N  79.7W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     06/1800Z 40.0N  79.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     07/0600Z 43.0N  77.0W    20 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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