HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 1999

...CORRECTION 2ND SENTENCE...SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD...

SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST 3-6 HRS. THE MOST RECENT SSM/I
DATA SUPPORTS THIS...AND THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE NOW IS
210/04.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT DENNIS HAS
BEEN DRIFTING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. WHILE THE
STEERING PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX...WITH MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGES TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENNIS...A GENERAL CONSENSUS
OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHWEST
...THEN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AT A SLOW
PACE....AND REPRESENTS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION. AS STATED IN 
THE LAST ADVISORY...ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE 48 TO 72
HOURS FORECAST POINTS ARE...HISTORICALLY...SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

THE STORM REMAINS RATHER WELL ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION...TOPS TO -45C MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER
...REMAINS LIMITED. DENNIS CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME SUBTROPICAL
-TYPE CHARACTERISTICS....AS NOTED BY THE TAFB SATELLITE
METEOROLOGIST...AND APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  MOREOVER...THE SHIPS OUTPUT CONTINUES TO
INDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AND THIS MAY
NOT VERIFY.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST.

AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE WAKEFIELD VA AND MOREHEAD CITY NC NWS
OFFICES...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL
BE DISCONTINUED.  
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0300Z 33.8N  74.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     03/1200Z 33.6N  74.2W    50 KTS
24HR VT     04/0000Z 33.5N  75.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     04/1200Z 33.5N  76.3W    50 KTS
48HR VT     05/0000Z 33.5N  77.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     06/0000Z 34.5N  78.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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