HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 01 1999
 
BECAUSE THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING AND CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...ONLY
A FEW INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS...I AM TEMPTED TO DECLARE
DENNIS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS TOO
CLOSE TO THE COAST AND I PREFER NOT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH
IR SATELLITE PICTURES.   LATEST RECON...A FEW HOURS AGO... MEASURED
987 MB WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY CIRCULATION CENTER.   

TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DENNIS OR ITS REMNANTS MOVING
TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THERE ARE NO REASONS TO
CHANGE IT.   
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING.   HOWEVER...ANY
UNEXPECTED SHORT TERM INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION COULD BRING THE
SYSTEM BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THEREFORE...WE ARE KEEPING THE
HURRICANE WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN A NEW RECON REACHES THE AREA AND VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME
AVAILABLE.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL ALSO BE RECONSIDERED. 
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0900Z 35.0N  73.5W    60 KTS
12HR VT     01/1800Z 35.0N  73.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     02/0600Z 34.8N  74.3W    55 KTS
36HR VT     02/1800Z 34.7N  75.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     03/0600Z 34.5N  75.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     04/0600Z 33.0N  77.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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