HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999
 
LATEST FIXES SUGGEST A SLIGHT EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...WHICH
HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECASTS.  THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO TURN
DENNIS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY
THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND LEAVE DENNIS
BEHIND.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED MARKEDLY
IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...BUT THE CENTER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM
THE COAST BY THAT TIME.  NONETHELESS A BLOCKING HIGH...WHICH SHOULD
REPLACE THE NORTHEAST U.S. TROUGH...MAY CAUSE DENNIS TO MEANDER OFF
THE COAST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND.

THERE WAS ONLY A SLIGHT PRESSURE DROP REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS THIS AFTERNOON...SO CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED.  THE
INNER CORE STRUCTURE IS STILL NOT WELL DEFINED.  DENNIS HAS A
LARGE... RAGGED BANDING-TYPE EYE 45 TO 50 N MI ACROSS.  SUCH
TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY.  ON THE OTHER
HAND THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS
FAVORABLE.   MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS COULD STILL BE ATTAINED WITHIN
24 HOURS OR SO.
 
ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND ITS NEARNESS TO THE COAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE
WARNINGS.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 31.5N  78.3W    90 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 32.8N  77.6W    95 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 34.0N  75.5W   100 KTS
36HR VT     31/0600Z 35.0N  74.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     31/1800Z 35.5N  72.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     01/1800Z 35.5N  70.5W   100 KTS
 
 
NNNN