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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999
CORRECTION TO INITIAL WIND SPEED...70 KNOTS NOT 75 KNOTS

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS OF
MOTION.  THE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM THE SYNOPTIC
SURVEILLANCE MISSION FROM WHICH DATA WAS USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z
AVIATION MODEL.  EVEN SO...THE 06Z MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM
EARLIER GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ALSO DOES NOT CHANGE
MUCH EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS WHERE THE FORECAST POINT IS MOVED ABOUT 90
NMI FURTHER EAST.  THIS POINT IS NEAR THE GFDL FORECAST AND WEST OF
ALL THE OTHER MODELS EXCEPT THE BAM MODELS.
 
THE LATEST RECON PRESSURE IS 975 MB WHICH IS DOWN 13 MB IN 24 HOURS.
THE HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WIND FROM THE RECON MISSION WAS 78 KNOTS AT
700 MB ABOUT 30 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SO 70 KNOTS IS STILL A
GOOD SURFACE WIND SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WITH A CLOSED EYE AND
FALLING PRESSURE...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOON
AS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST TO 90 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT
ONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...FOLLOWING THE
SHIPS MODEL.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 26.7N  76.9W    70 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 27.2N  77.6W    80 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 27.8N  78.4W    85 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 29.0N  79.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 30.4N  79.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 33.0N  78.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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