HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
DENNIS IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY...IN FACT IT IS
BETTER THAT IT IS EVER BEEN SO FAR.   IT HAS AN EYE TYPE FEATURE AND
WELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...BUT A LITTLE BIT RESTRICTED TO
THE WEST.  HOWEVER...GROUND TRUTH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LATEST A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE WINDS HAVE
NOT INCREASED AND THE PRESSURE IS NOT DROPPING YET.  THIS SHOWS ONCE
AGAIN...THE UNCERTAINTIES NOT ONLY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST BUT
ALSO IN THE ESTIMATES OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  NEVERTHELESS...WITH
BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS SUGGESTING STRENGTHENING AND SUCH A GOOD
PATTERN ON SATELLITE PICTURES...INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.
 
THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED AND MODELS... IN GENERAL...ARE 
CONSISTENTLY TURNING DENNIS NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD ON A TRACK
PARALLEL AND NOT FAR FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.  HOWEVER...ONLY
A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN AN
INCREASE OF THE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.  THEREFORE...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...THE 72-HOUR FORECAST BRINGS DENNIS VERY CLOSE TO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  AT THAT TIME...THE TROUGH MAY BE GONE AND
BECOME REPLACED BY A HIGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN A VERY SLOW MOVING
HURRICANE WHICH COULD WAIT FOR THE NEXT TROUGH TO  MOVE THE
HURRICANE OUT TO SEA OR REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE COASTS OF
NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 26.0N  76.3W    70 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 26.7N  77.5W    80 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 27.5N  78.5W    90 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 28.5N  79.0W    95 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 30.0N  79.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 33.0N  79.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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