HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999
 
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA AND
CLOUD WIND VECTORS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DENNIS IS BROAD AND POORLY
ORGANIZED.  MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A 200MB RIDGE OVER THE SYSTEM...A PATTERN WHICH FAVORS
STRENGTHENING.  SHIPS MODELS ALSO FORECASTS DENNIS TO BE A HURRICANE
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF MOTION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS 295/09.  MOST OF
THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS WOULD CREATE A PATTERN FOR THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWARD...A MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN
EMPHASIZED BY THE LATEST GFDL RUN TODAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING THAT THE
POTENTIAL THREAT SHIFTED NORTHWARD TOWARD GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
HOWEVER...THIS TURN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND RESIDENTS ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 23.2N  71.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 23.8N  72.8W    50 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 24.7N  74.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 25.7N  75.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 27.5N  77.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 30.0N  77.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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