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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN IN THE AREA OF THE
DEPRESSION AND SO FAR IT HAS FOUND A BROAD ILL DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WELL TO THE EAST THE POSSIBLE CENTER. U.S.
NAVY BUOYS ALSO INDICATE A BROAD CIRCULATION AND SURFACE PRESSURES
OF THE ORDER OF 1008 MB...A DROP OF ABOUT 8 MB IN 24 HOURS. NORMALLY
THIS IS AN INDICATION OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM.  BECAUSE THE CENTER IS
POORLY ORGANIZED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THERE
PROBABLY WILL BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS OF THE LOCATION AND THE MOTION
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING. GLOBAL MODELS REMOVE THE CURRENT
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE A
HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

BEST ESTIMATE OF MOTION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS 290/08.  MOST OF
THE MODELS BRING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
AND THIS WOULD CREATE A PATTERN FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD.  HOWEVER...THIS TURN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR 
CLOSE TO THE COAST...THEREFORE RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.
 
AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 22.5N  71.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 22.8N  72.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 23.5N  73.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 24.5N  75.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 28.0N  78.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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