HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 1999
 
CINDY IS EXPERIENCING SOME VERITCAL WIND SHEAR WITH MULTICHANNEL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW 70 KTS...IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RECENT TAFB...SAB AND AFGW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...
IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...PER UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN 
CIMSS ANALYSES AND THE 18Z AVN FORECASTS...AND PROGRESSIVELY 
COOLER WATERS.  
 
SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT CINDY HAS BEGUN 
TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST...PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/18 KTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED BY 36 HRS OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DEVELOPING
LOW PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...POSITIONED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF
THE CYCLONE. 

GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0300Z 38.5N  52.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     31/1200Z 41.0N  48.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 44.5N  43.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 48.0N  36.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     02/0000Z 51.0N  29.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     03/0000Z 55.0N  15.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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