HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999
 
CINDY REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A
WELL-DEFINED 35 NM WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN -65C TO -75C CLOUD TOPS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES...ARE 115 KT. THAT WILL BE THE MAXIMUM
WINDS FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS CINDY MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES
AND OVER COOLER WATER. TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY START BY 72 HOURS.
 
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR
THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LAST NIGHT NORTH OF BERMUDA IS
MOVING EAST AND IS NOW ALONG 60W. CINDY IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES AT ABOUT 24 HOURS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. A
GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS LIKELY AFTER
RECURVATURE. ALL NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.

BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 29.6N  57.9W   115 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 30.5N  58.9W   120 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 32.1N  59.2W   115 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 34.2N  58.4W   110 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 36.5N  55.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     31/0600Z 42.0N  46.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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