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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999
 
THE STRUCTURE OF CINDY HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A CENTRAL
RING OF BROKEN CONVECTION AND SOME BANDING TO THE SOUTH.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO WE WILL
BRING THE INTENSITY UP TO 60 KT ON THIS PACKAGE WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT CINDY WILL BE A HURRICANE SOON.  WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND ADEQUATE
SSTS...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS CINDY UP TO 92 KT IN 72
HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND TO THE RIGHT...AND CINDY IS NOW
MOVING AT 305/14.  06 AND 12Z AVN RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A
RELATIVELY WEAK MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT SHOULD ALLOW A MOSTLY
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF A VERY TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE GUIDANCE.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 20.6N  47.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 21.9N  49.6W    65 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 23.6N  52.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.6N  54.7W    80 KTS
48HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N  57.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     28/1800Z 31.5N  61.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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