HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 25 1999

BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS...CINDY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY. 
HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
SYMMETRIC WHICH SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE. 
THIS IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW FAIRLY WEAK
AND THE UNDERLYING WATERS ARE BECOMING WARMER.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL
MODEL...SHIPS.

THE CENTER POSITION IS NOT OBVIOUS FROM INFRARED IMAGERY...BUT THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE STORM IS MOVING A BIT MORE
NORTHWESTWARD.  HOWEVER FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOT ADJUSTED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 55W NORTH OF 20N WOULD INDUCE
A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IF IT REMAINS IN PLACE. 
HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO MIGRATE WESTWARD...AND WITH A
SUBSTANTIAL 500 MB RIDGE ALONG 30N TO THE NORTH OF CINDY...A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS IS
ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AS WELL.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 18.6N  45.3W    55 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N  47.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 20.7N  50.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N  53.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N  55.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N  61.0W    90 KTS
 
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