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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE AUG 24 1999
 
THE APPEARANCE OF CINDY HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON.  LATE THIS
MORNING A MID-LEVEL VORTEX IN THE CONVECTION WAS EVIDENT IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED
OVER THE VORTEX IN THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER IS STILL IN DOUBT...I BELIEVE IT IS...OR SOON WILL
BE...REFORMING UNDER THE NEW CONVECTION.  SSTS UNDER CINDY ARE NOW
27C...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER TIME.  THERE IS STILL A LITTLE
NORTHERLY SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THIS SHOULD LESSEN OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS CINDY TO 86 KT IN 72
HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONCURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 280/15.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT AS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS IT WAS EARLIER...WITH THE DEEP BAM ON
THE RIGHT GIVING A NET NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE PERIOD...AND THE
GFDL AND LBAR ON THE LEFT WITH MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  HOW
MUCH RECURVATURE WE GET WILL DEPEND ON THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT
BASED ON THE TREND TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...AND IS TOWARDS THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 17.6N  43.4W    55 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N  45.7W    60 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 18.7N  48.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 20.3N  51.7W    70 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N  55.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 25.5N  60.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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