HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN AUG 22 1999
 
CINDY REMAINS IN A HIGHLY SHEARED STATE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OFF TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT THE
STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE...AND SO RESTRENGTHENING SEEMS
UNLIKELY...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM.  ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION...THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE
TEMPORARY.  INTENSITY IS DROPPED TO 50 KT AT THIS ADVISORY BASED ON
FALLING DVORAK T NUMBERS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/6...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS MOTION.  THE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS...WITH THE BAM MODELS INDICATING A WESTWARD TRACK AT VARYING
SPEEDS RELATED TO THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE REMAINING
MODELS...INCLUDING GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET...INDICATING A WEST-
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE.  IF CINDY BECOMES COMPLETELY DETACHED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION THE MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH SLOWER.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 15.0N  34.2W    50 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.3N  34.9W    50 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.5N  36.4W    50 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N  38.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N  40.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N  47.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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