HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ARLENE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-
DEFINED...WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE NOW 1.5...25 KT.  CLOUD-DRIFT WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN/CIMSS STILL SHOW 40 KT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...SO WE WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AS ARLENE ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST...WE
EXPECT TO LOSE THE CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITHIN 24 H.
 
ARLENE HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FORWARD MOTION IS NOW
030/11.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST AND IS CLOSE
TO THE SHALLOW BAM.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 34.9N  61.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 36.3N  60.8W    25 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 39.0N  59.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     19/0600Z ..DISSIPATED... 
 
NNNN