HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT ARLENE IS ONCE
AGAIN LOSING ITS BATTLE WITH SHEAR...WITH A LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE 3.0...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 45 KT.  AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE
AGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING TO SEE WHETHER THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED. 
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
OVER THE NEXT 36 H...IMPLYING A BRIEF INTERVAL OF FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  LONGER TERM...THE INCREASING SHEAR AND
COOLER SSTS SHOULD PROVE FATAL.

AFTER REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY THIS MORNING...ARLENE HAS RESUMED
A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE CENTER IS VERY BROAD AND POORLY
DEFINED...BUT OUR BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/3.  THERE WAS
NO 12Z GFDL TODAY...BUT REMAINING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ARLENE WILL
REMAIN EAST OF BERMUDA.  OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TOWARD THE SHALLOW BAM...IN ANTICIPATION OF
A MOSTLY SHEARED SYSTEM.

FRANKLIN/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 30.1N  61.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 30.4N  61.8W    45 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 30.9N  62.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 31.8N  63.1W    40 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 33.0N  64.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 37.0N  63.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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