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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999
 
ARLENE CONTINUES MOVING WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/05.
LARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTHEAST OF ARLENE PRODUCING A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH...DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS
WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF ARLENE NEAR OR EAST OF BERMUDA.  NHC
HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS MORE DIVERSE...WITH THE BAMS PASSING JUST EAST
OF BERMUDA...AND THE GFDL AND BAMM PASSING JUST SOUTH.  THE GFDL IN
FACT BRINGS THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE ISLAND.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHALLOW BAM.
THE 36 HOUR POSITION IS WITHIN 120 MILES OF BERMUDA...NECESSITATING
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.
 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER
REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE LATEST INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 45 KT.  THE SHIPS AND AVN MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR
MAY LESSEN TEMPORARILY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
DICTATES ONLY MINIMAL STRENGTHENING IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST.
 
FRANKLIN/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 29.4N  60.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 29.5N  61.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 30.1N  62.4W    50 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 30.9N  63.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 32.0N  63.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 33.5N  64.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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