HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999

...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL INTENSITY...
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE REMAINS HEALTHY WITH AN
EXPANDING CDO...TOPS TO -70C...AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WHILE IMPROVING ELSEWHERE.  SATELLITE-BASED
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 55 KT AND 45 KT
...RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE BUMPED UP TO 50 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THE SYNOPTIC REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK SHOWS A NORTH-NORTHWEST
DRIFT THRU 24 HOURS WITH A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION THEREAFTER. THIS 
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN SOLUTION. 

WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TRACK THE 00Z NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS
ARLENE TO A 65-KT HURRICANE BY 24 HOURS. 
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 29.1N  57.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 29.3N  57.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 29.6N  57.6W    65 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 30.0N  57.8W    65 KTS
48HR VT     15/0600Z 30.4N  58.3W    65 KTS
72HR VT     16/0600Z 31.0N  59.5W    65 KTS
  
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