ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998 THE RECENT WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS ON SATELLITE PICTURES IS SOMEWHAT DECEIVING AS DVORAK T-NUMBER HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE...NOW TO 3.5 AT TAFB. SHIP 3FMH7 ABOUT 40 NM NE OF THE CENTER REPORTED 50 KT WINDS. SO...THE ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW 55 KT. THE 340 DEGREE HEADING PERSISTS WITH THE SPEED HAVING DECREASED TO ABOUT 5 KT. THE 12Z AVN STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND SWEEPING MADELINE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE AVN-BASED TRACK MODELS AND NHC FORECAST ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THAT AS WELL. THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND FORECAST MOVEMENT AND WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST THAT MADELINE COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS TO A CONSIDERABLE AREA OVER MEXICO...AND CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE U.S. SOUTH-CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN STATES. RAPPAPORT FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 19.7N 108.5W 55 KTS 12HR VT 17/0600Z 20.4N 108.7W 60 KTS 24HR VT 17/1800Z 21.6N 108.7W 65 KTS 36HR VT 18/0600Z 23.2N 108.4W 70 KTS 48HR VT 18/1800Z 24.7N 108.0W 75 KTS 72HR VT 19/1800Z 27.5N 106.5W 25 KTS...INLAND NNNN