ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1 AM PST MON OCT 26 1998 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED DISSIPATED WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE COLLAPSED AND THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...GFDL...NAVY NOGAPS...AND UKMET...ALL SHOW LITTLE OVERALL MOTION THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS WELL. MAYFIELD FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 17.4N 115.5W 30 KTS 12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W 30 KTS 24HR VT 27/0600Z 17.5N 115.5W 25 KTS 36HR VT 27/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 28/0600Z 17.5N 115.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 29/0600Z 17.5N 115.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING NNNN