ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1 PM PST SUN OCT 25 1998 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/07. THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION FOR 72 HOURS. THE LBAR AND BAM DEEP MODELS CONINUE TO SHOW AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS WEAKENING AND THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 17.5N 115.0W 35 KTS 12HR VT 26/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W 35 KTS 24HR VT 26/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W 30 KTS 36HR VT 27/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W 30 KTS 48HR VT 27/1800Z 19.5N 115.5W 25 KTS 72HR VT 28/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W 25 KTS NNNN